Robert J. Gaffney-Leisure Land and-Properties Realty

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The Real Estate Report: Newsletter

 

Article 1:         Mortgage Delinquencies at FHA Show Slowdown 
Article 2:         Why the FHA Isn’t Out of the Woods Yet

Article 3:   A Fresh Look at Rent vs. Buy

Article 4:   Realtors Want Congress to Tweak Tax Credit Timeline

Article 5:   Commercial Deals Abound but Loans Are Scarce

Article 6:   Jumbo Loans Easier to Find
Article 7
:   Why Americans Get Ripped Off on Mortgage Loans
Article 8:  
Delinquent Loans Plateau at High Level 
Article 9:  Fifteen-Year Mortgage Hits a Record Low


 

THE REAL ESTATE REPORT:   

INTERNET EDITION  


The government agency that backs home loans may have some good news for taxpayers.

Home mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration are falling into delinquency at a slower rate than they have in the past. If the trend is maintained, it could help the government agency avoid a taxpayer bailout.

In April, nearly 8.5% of loans backed by the agency were 90 days or more past due. While that was still higher than a year earlier, April marked the third consecutive month in which delinquencies, which peaked at 9.4% in January, declined.

The FHA figures come amid other signs ...

DEVELOPMENTS:

June 7, 2010, 10:57 AM ET
Why the FHA Isn’t Out of the Woods Yet
By Nick Timiraos

In today’s WSJ we look at how, in a surprising development, mortgage defaults have fallen for three straight months at the Federal Housing Administration.

If that trend holds, the agency could avoid burning through its cash reserves, which are estimated to fall sharply over the coming years. Still, the FHA’s commissioner, David Stevens, says “there’s plenty of room for caution.”

Indeed, the FHA is by no means out of the woods. If the economy weakens or home prices slide again, the agency could see significant losses because it has a much bigger exposure to housing today than it did when the housing market tanked three years ago.

Even if the FHA’s improvement continues, it’s possible that this year’s annual audit could show that the agency is still running low on cash, or worse, that it is insolvent. Here’s how: Every fall, an independent auditor estimates the value of the agency’s reserves after accounting for expected losses. If the home-price forecast used to predict those cash flows takes a bearish view of future home prices, then those models could signal that the FHA will run out of money, absent any new business.

Right now, the FHA’s financial performance is ahead of the forecasts made last fall. For the first six months of the fiscal year, which began last Oct. 1, the FHA has paid out $6 billion on defaulted loans, down from an estimated $8.7 billion in loan losses. But that forecast assumed a 6.5% price decline that hasn’t materialized. If that price decline has been delayed into the future, but not avoided, then that could spell problems for the FHA during this year’s annual review.

The FHA doesn’t lend money directly to borrowers but instead insures lenders against losses on loans that meet certain standards. It collects a fee for that backing and has traditionally been self-funded. The New Deal-era agency didn’t loosen its standards during the housing boom, and its market share plunged to 2% in 2006.

But the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market in 2007 followed by tougher underwriting criteria at mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008 swelled the volume of loans headed to the FHA, which has become one of the last sources of low down-payment loans. The agency is on track to match last year’s record haul of 1.8 million loan guarantees, and it backed nearly half of all home-purchase mortgages in the first quarter.

“Having FHA do this much volume is a sign of a very sick system,” Mr. Stevens told an audience of mortgage bankers last month. “This is a market purely on life support, sustained by the federal government.”

Nearly two-thirds of FHA borrowers that took out loans over the past year have less than 5% equity in their homes, illustrating the risks that just a 5-10% decline in home prices could have on the agency’s reserve funds.

Critics say the agency is doing no favors to taxpayers or new homeowners by providing relatively easy loan terms. “Insofar as the FHA was encouraging people to buy homes in bubble markets that were not deflated, that’s not good for the FHA and you didn’t help the homeowner,” says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a liberal think tank.

But Mr. Stevens says the current crisis would have been much worse if the agency hadn’t played a large role. Calls for the FHA to withdraw liquidity from mortgage markets aren’t credible “when you look at how little capital there is in the market today,” says Mr. Stevens. “Anyone who wants to say, ‘It was irresponsible to finance homes in 2009,’ that’s a pretty extreme statement.”


JUNE 3, 2010, 9:52 A.M. ET
A Fresh Look at Rent vs. Buy

June 2, 2010, 2:42 PM ET
Realtors Want Congress to Tweak Tax Credit Timeline
By Nick Timiraos and Dawn Wotapka

Real-estate prices are enticingly low in many areas of the country, prompting business owners to pursue sweet deals on storefronts, manufacturing facilities and other commercial properties. But because banks remain wary of commercial real-estate loans, landing financing to make such a purchase can be time consuming and tedious.

 

[SBloan] 
 

Compared to peak prices in October 2007, commercial property values are down 42%, according to Moody's Investors Service Inc. Price index reports compiled by Moody's and Real Capital Analytics Inc. show that as of March 2010, the cost of industrial and office space fell 32% in the last two years. Retail space also plummeted 28%.

 

"There is excess space, which opens an opportunity for small firms," says Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist at National Federation of Independent Business, a Washington advocacy group. "You won't see prices like these for a long time."

 

Some owners are heeding the call. Randy Scheidt, who heads the legislative subcommittee of the National Association of Realtor's commercial division, says that he is noticing business owners "feeling more comfortable with the future" and weighing whether "such an acquisition would be fiscally prudent."

 

But the tight credit environment is making it difficult for entrepreneurs to secure those loans. "What is so different today versus 2006 is the underwriting scrutiny," says Mr. Scheidt. "It's not unusual for [the loan process] to take an additional 30 to 60 days."

 

[SBMORT]

Eliot Boyle, owner of U.S. Metals LLC in Denver, decided last year to move his sheet-metal roofing and siding business to a new facility. Lease rates in the area were steady, but commercial spaces for sale on the market were falling. "We thought this was a good time to take advantage of how well we were doing and how poorly the real-estate environment was doing," he says.

 

After preparing his business plan, he visited five banks and was turned down by four. The remaining lender, Bank of the West, which had previously worked with Mr. Boyle, issued him a Small Business Administration loan to buy a $680,000 building. The price for the space —a 50%-larger facility—had dropped 40%.

 

The process took longer than anticipated and closed one day before the scheduled move. The delays, says Mr. Boyle, stemmed from the bank's requirement of additional environmental reports and other due diligence.

"All those appraisals showed that…if the bank needs to move fast and has to liquidate the building quickly, it can do that," says Mr. Boyle.

"The approval timelines are really not that different than they were in the past," says Jim Cole, spokesperson for the San Francisco-based Bank of the West. "Appraisals take the same amount of time and, as always, environmental reports can take longer than expected."

 

Many banks taking extra precaution before issuing commercial mortgages are reeling from those kinds of losses and are wary of putting more of those loans on their books. According to a Real Capital Analytics' study of Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and bank data, the default rate for commercial real-estate mortgages rose to 4.2%, amounting to $45.5 billion, for the first quarter of 2010. That's the highest default rate since 1992.

Commercial real estate loans have really hurt community and regional banks, which are key lenders to small businesses. They hold just more than half of bank-issued commercial mortgages and their portfolios are likely to hurt for some time. The default trend is expected to continue through 2011, when it may hit 5.4%, before abating, according to Real Capital Analytics.

Although the commercial real estate market has shown some tentative signs of life in the early months of 2010, there is little transparency about the value of many properties, says Sam Chandan, chief economist at Real Capital Analytics. Appraisals help determine price, he explains, but commercial property values are supported by other transactions in the area.

 

To overcome the credit challenge, experts say entrepreneurs can make themselves more attractive by submitting sound financial plans that back up their income projections and intent to repay the loan. Borrowers with solid credit histories and established bank relationships are more likely to get a loan.

 

Mr. Chandan says newer businesses can still land financing if they can bring equity to the table, especially if the borrower wants to purchase a vacant property that the bank is holding. But, he cautions, "lending standards have tightened considerably, so it will be challenging."

Emily Maltby at wsj.com


APRIL 30, 2010
Jumbo Loans Easier to Find

Getting a jumbo mortgage is becoming a little easier for home buyers in the New York area.

Jumbos in the tri-state area are mortgages that exceed $729,750, the limit set to receive government backing or for lenders to sell the loans to mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since the mortgage crisis, banks haven't been eager to make large loans without federal protection, so the market for such mortgages suffered, crimping sales of expensive homes.

 

But more lenders have been stepping up their offerings of jumbo loans, even though most of the large mortgages will stay in the lender's portfolio. "The rust has slowly been shaken off as banks re-learn how to do portfolio lending," says Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates, a financial publisher based in Pompton Plains, N.J.

 

[JUMBO]

The New York region is benefiting from having a large array of financial institutions that make loans--from national lenders and investment firms to credit unions and smaller banks. That means even though the crisis has made credit guidelines more stringent, "there is definitely more money available," says Melissa Cohn, president of brokerage Manhattan Mortgage Co.

 

Some banks, like Hudson City Savings Bank, a thrift based in Paramus, N.J., and Astoria Federal Savings, a Queens, N.Y., lender, have long had a hand in the jumbo market and didn't retreat when private money fled as the credit crisis worsened. Together, the two regional lenders accounted for nearly 6% of all jumbo lending in the country last year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.

 

Astoria's jumbo lending volume doubled in the second half of the 2009 from the first half, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, even though it reduced its maximum loan limit to $1.5 million, from $2.5 million.

 

Bigger banks have also gradually increased jumbo offerings. On Monday, Citigroup Inc. will drop rates to around 5.6% on 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgages with down payments of at least 25%. "There are a lot of really good buyers who are underserved today, particularly in high-end markets like California and New York," said Sanjiv Das, chief executive of Citi's mortgage unit. He says the bank hopes lower rates will help "energize" those housing markets.

 

At J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., jumbo activity increased in every quarter last year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. A lending official says the bank is reducing minimum down payments to as low as 20% in markets where prices appear to have bottomed.

Credit unions have also become a popular jumbo outlet. "They certainly filled the void locally...You used to never see a credit union do mortgage lending," says Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance.

 

Long Island's Teachers Federal Credit Union offers jumbo loans up to $1.5 million with 20% down, while Bethpage Federal Credit Union will make loans up to $2.5 million, though it requires a 45% down-payment on those loans.

 

Meanwhile, rates on jumbo loans have also fallen to their lowest levels in years. Last week, the average 30-year fixed-rate jumbo loan carried a 5.76% rate, just above the all-time low of 5.55% in June 2003, according to HSH Associates.

 

"Hybrid" adjustable-rate mortgages that carry a fixed rate for the first five years are now as low as 4.25%, down from 5.25% one year ago, says David Adamo, chief executive of Luxury Mortgage Corp., a mortgage bank in Stamford, Conn.

"The availability of money has improved and the price of that money has improved," says Mr. Gumbinger of HSH. "No one would characterize it as great, but slowly but surely, things have been getting better."

 

Indeed, underwriting standards are still very tight, with most lenders requiring minimum credit scores of 740 and down payments of at least 20% for loans up to $1 million and 30% for loans up to $2 million.

 

And until those standards relax, analysts say that a modest improvement in mortgage lending might not have a big effect on sales on a market that depended heavily on easy lending during the bubble.

 

"You don't have 35-year-old investment bankers putting 10% down on $4 million apartments," says Jonathan Miller, president of New York appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. "That knocks a large group of people out of the pool."

 

Nick Timiraos at wsj.com

April 29, 2010, 2:39 PM ET
Why Americans Get Ripped Off on Mortgage Loans
By James R. Hagerty

 

You might think that Americans would have learned over the past few years that home mortgages can be dangerous products, to be approached warily, only after careful study and consideration. You would be wrong.

 

Americans spend twice as much time shopping for cars than they do for home loans, Zillow.com reported Thursday.  An online survey of 2,729 adults commissioned by Zillow found that on average they spent five hours choosing a mortgage, compared with 10 hours for a car and four hours for a computer. Nearly a third of the respondents devoted two hours or less to choosing a mortgage.

 

“Mortgages continue to be something that most people don’t want to spend time thinking about,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow, a real estate information firm.

 

Of course, only an economist could find that even faintly surprising. Most people find it fun to look at shiny new cars and take them for test drives. Vroom, vroom! Reading through the fine print of loan contracts and trying to figure out what would be a fair price for title insurance and an appraisal–well, slightly less diverting.

 

Even if you do want to shop wisely for a mortgage, that isn’t easy to do. You can’t just pick the lowest rate because the lender offering the lowest rate might have the highest fees. And one lender’s loan doesn’t necessarily have the same terms as the similar-sounding loan from the bank or broker next door. You need to look at a bunch of factors, and at the end of it you won’t necessarily know which combination is best.

 

Moreover, you might be told on Monday morning that your rate will be 5%. When you come back to lock in the next morning, however, the lender may tell you that the market has moved (as it does constantly) and now your rate is 5.25%. Do you have time to go back to all the other lenders and check what they’re charging today? Or are you so eager to refinance or seal your home purchase that you’ll just sign on the dotted line?

 

In fact, many lazybones simply go to one lender–the one recommended by a friend, Realtor or home builder–rather than doing their own research.

At the beginning of this year, new federal rules mandated a standard three-page “good faith estimate” of mortgage fees and terms that is supposed to make it easier for consumers to compare offerings of different lenders. Opinions are mixed on whether this new form is helpful or confusing.

 

Lenders, for their part, always say they are eager to improve “financial literacy” so consumers can make better choices. But do they really want to make it easy for consumers to shop for mortgages? I’m skeptical. If consumers could easily compare one lender’s terms with another’s, profit margins on home mortgages would go down.

 

By James R. Hagerty at wsj.com

 

The number of American households behind on mortgage payments appears to have reached a plateau at a high level as the economy recovers, a survey showed Wednesday.

At the same time, people who fall behind on their mortgages are staying in their homes longer as banks struggle with huge volumes of calls for help and with the complexities of federal and state foreclosure-prevention programs.

Diane B. Robertson of Oldsmar, Fla., said she had to stop making mortgage payments around the end of 2008 after a drop in her income. She said her lawyer advised her "to just sit tight because you may be sitting there for two years." Seventeen months later, foreclosure proceedings are under way, but Ms. Robertson is still waiting to be evicted.

The Mortgage Bankers Association, a trade group, reported that 14% of mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit homes were 30 days or more delinquent or in the foreclosure process as of March 31. That represents about 7.3 million households. The rate was 12% a year earlier.

Becky Mehaffey gardens in her yard in Marysville, Wash., on Wednesday. The Mehaffeys are 15 months delinquent on their mortgage but haven't been evicted from their home.

The portion of borrowers between 30 and 60 days overdue—mostly representing newly delinquent homeowners—declined to 3.45% as of March 31 from 3.77% a year earlier.

Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the MBA, said the number of borrowers falling behind has dropped modestly partly because of recent job growth.

Even so, around 2.6 million households were 90 days or more overdue but still not in the foreclosure process, which can take more than a year, the MBA said. In some cases, the process is extremely slow: About 153,000 borrowers were 18 months or more overdue and still awaiting the start of foreclosure proceedings as of April 30, according to LPS Applied Analytics. That's up from 30,000 a year earlier.

Homeowners typically can stay in their homes nine to 12 months without making any payments, said Aaron Horvath, a senior vice president at Springboard Inc., a nonprofit counseling service based in Riverside, Calif.

Josh Zollinger, owner of Orange Coast Realty in Mission Viejo, Calif., said some of his clients have gone two years without paying. Some homeowners extend their free stays by seeking loan modifications shortly before their homes are due to be auctioned, he said.

Distressed borrowers are staying put for long periods, partly because the federal government has leaned on banks to offer lower payments to avert as many foreclosures as possible, a time-consuming process. New laws in some states also require banks to take more steps to determine which borrowers might be rescued. Further slowing the process, many banks still don't have enough capacity to handle all the requests from borrowers for help.

[DELINQUENT]

"There is a certain triage that takes place," Mr. Brinkmann said. "In some cases, it's: 'We'll get to you when we can get to you.' "

In Florida, Ms. Robertson said she had been struggling to live on Social Security payments of $554 a month since her alimony was cut off. She said she didn't know when she would be forced to find a new home, adding: "I'll have to face that music some time."

Becky and Jeff Mehaffey of Marysville, Wash., haven't made payments since early 2009, but are still in the home where they raised four children. Mr. Mehaffey is out of work because of health problems and the failure of a drywall-installation business he helped create. His wife is also looking for work.

"A lot of calamities hit at once," Mr. Mehaffey said. "One way or the other, we'll get through it."

Delaying the foreclosure process is "definitely a bad thing," said Anthony Sanders, a professor of real-estate finance at George Mason University. "You want to recognize losses, get over the pain, move on as quickly as possible."

But Tom Lawler, an independent housing economist in Leesburg, Va., said the delays haven't been entirely bad, because banks needed time to figure out which homeowners could be helped in a way that served the interests of both lenders and borrowers. The delays also avoided swamping the housing market with too many foreclosed homes all at once.

But Mr. Lawler said banks now need to become more efficient at foreclosing in cases where borrowers clearly can't afford their homes.

For now, some borrowers have little idea what the consequences will be for failing to make payments. To revive mortgage lending that doesn't carry a government guarantee against defaults, "people need to know what the ground rules are," Mr. Lawler said.

At the end of the first quarter, about 9.4% of borrowers were overdue on payments but not yet in foreclosure, and about 4.63% were in the foreclosure process.

"If mortgage delinquencies are not yet clearly improving, it also appears they are not getting worse," Mr. Brinkmann said. "However, a bad situation that is not getting worse is still bad."

James R. Hagerty at wsj.com


JUNE 4, 2010
Fifteen-Year Mortgage Hits a Record Low

WASHINGTON—Home-mortgage rates were little changed last week, holding steady for the most part at or near recent lows, including a record for the 15-year fixed-rate loan, Freddie Mac said.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average rose slightly to 4.79% for the week ended Thursday, according to Freddie's weekly survey.

In the prior week, the average rate was 4.78%, the lowest since December. The year-ago average for the 30-year home loan stood at 5.29%.

"The economy grew at a slower rate than originally reported in the first three months of the year … which suggests inflation will remain tame in the near term," said Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft, referring to revised data on U.S. gross domestic product.

"As a result," he said, "mortgage rates held at historic levels this week."

Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.2%, the lowest level since Freddie Mac began tracking the mortgage in 1991, down from 4.21% in the prior week.

One-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 3.95%, unchanged from the prior week and the lowest level since May 2004. The one-year ARM averaged 4.81% a year ago.

The five-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 3.94%, down from 3.97% in the prior week and 4.85% a year ago.

wsj.com


 
 
 

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